Experts say interest rates will become the norm this year, signaling a strong contraction

 Experts believe that interest rates this year, will become the norm, in the first half there will be two to three times

the last day of the Lunar New Year holidays (8) night, the People's Bank announced that starting from February 9, financial institutions raised the benchmark deposit and lending rate by 25 basis points. Choose holiday beginning with the past in different public announcement, the central bank's choice of the end of the announcement during the holidays to raise interest rates, the release of a strong anti-inflation monetary tightening signal.

economists believe that economic growth will take into account the fall of 2010 gradually stabilized, the trading range is expected to remain roughly 9% to 10%, so the rhythm and intensity of policy tightening this year, the main variable reference is C PI trend. Throughout the year based on price There is expected in the first half or 2 to 3 times to raise interest rates, and the adjustment of the second half will be significantly weakened, if the fourth quarter, down 4% C PI, tightening action will be suspended.

, outside the recent commodity prices continued to rise and so must reflect.

Ba that, from the current trend, the year in January and February may be the high prices, and accordingly, including the real estate policy and monetary policy, regulation and control efforts is the most severe period of the year, and now throughout the year austerity policy framework has been basically clear, with gradually reduce price pressures, the impact on the market tightening efforts will be weakened, while PM I began to fall, etc., it also shows prices in aggregate demand continues to rise, driven by the power shortage.

Lu, senior economist at Industrial Bank
political commissar of the view that the rate hike and the upcoming January C PI data will be high on. In addition, under strict control, housing prices still continue to rise, low interest rates may be a factor. Anti-based He predicted in January C PI may exceed 5.1%, 5.3% of the current round of new high record.

the moment, the market situation in January is widely expected higher inflation. CICC expects January C PI may rise to 5.5%. State Information Center, the latest forecast report, the first quarter, the pressure of rising prices is still too large, the expected C PI to rise about 5%. Industrial Securities is expected from January to March C PI were 5.5%, 4.9%, 5.2%. Some experts even expected, for the Spring Festival and climate factors driving, the CPI in January and February high of more than 6%.

Nomura Securities is expected, since C PI inflation running high and strong economic growth, China is expected to further tighten monetary policy in the future, ushering in a long, large-scale interest rate cycle. The agency's study reported that the year 2011, China will raise interest rates 100 basis points, reserve ratio increases of 250 basis points, and will introduce more macro-prudential measures.

experts believe that symmetry raise lending and deposit interest rates, intended to curb rapid credit growth momentum in January, will be conducive to the optimal allocation of credit resources. However, political commissar, said Lu, interest rates can not replace the adjustment of the reserve ratio is expected to February 1 may continue to rise 0.5 percentage point reserve ratio, to maintain (Xinhua Liu Winter)