Monday, December 27, 2010

To talk about oil prices rise, or a bit hurry

 To talk about oil prices rise, or a little hurry
recent media on a rising trend in domestic oil prices is puzzled by the report, and very depressed, first the two giants PetroChina and Sinopec's offer to cancel the previous promotion In big cities like Shanghai, 93 6.61 yuan per liter of gasoline back to the country's highest level of retail price; then the international oil price shocks in a slight increase in domestic oil prices can not wait to follow the general trend has been away; more appalling those who have nothing else to hold in mouth mouthful of Hu's study projected domestic and foreign institutions, who have high expectations for oil prices, resulting in domestic oil prices to determine whether or not a matter of time trapped in the inertia of mental errors.
was expected , by the end of March early April, the domestic oil price adjustment will occur increases, ranging from about about 0.2 yuan per liter on the grounds that the rebound in international oil prices higher.
First of all, I think that this is expected to be unreliable, although we price adjustment is not about the desire of the two giants, but realistically speaking, the current level of international oil prices the past few months and there is not much to grow, and has been in frequent shock of it, is to price adjustment, a result may not meet state regulations an average of 22 days 4% of the floating oil price adjustment conditions, and secondly, this so-called shock showed a strong rebound is just an illusion created, three to the current level of oil prices already at a high level, can not wait for oil prices rising oil giant is undoubtedly at play, from China since November 10 last year, no further adjustment of oil prices, they have increasingly lost and lonely out.
Then we need to question the international oil price in the end in a what level, what the future operating trends, now is not on the domestic oil prices play a decisive role. To answer this question, first and foremost on the global economic situation is a basic judgments and grasp. Although this year's European and American countries restore confidence in the economy has improved, but still many unstable factors, and those about the momentum of economic development, finance, industry and other industries is still no improvement, in fact, I think that now the economy is in Western countries during the Great Depression, this period may to last three to four years. specific to the international oil prices, is nothing less than to see two major factors, one dollar of face, the second is oil demand, and ultimately the issue boils down to oil production. Currently these issues are not well coordinated resolved, unusually slow U.S. economic recovery, in addition to the world's oil demand outside of Asia is still weak, which would allow oil producers and OPEC has a moderate yield controls, the most important thing is to avoid the oil price continued to decline, and its rising trend is very slim.
adjustment is based on domestic oil prices in international oil prices but followed the lead, if there is trouble, it will rise caught on to. Fundamentally, this is a plot of petroleum and petrochemical giant, rather than the general trend. Compared with the previous months, oil prices now can not explain what the average oil price per barrel level also in 77,78 or so, now is expected to price out of thin air, no basis at all.
However, there is the fact that a larger domestic base oil demand, and with the increase in fuel consumption, low oil after China's demand will drive international oil prices, domestic oil prices will naturally rise in power. But If domestic oil prices blindly chase, will be a negative impact on the economy, you know, in 2010 the Chinese economy faces a slowdown in the development of the situation, did not affect oil prices earlier will play an important role which policy makers must carefully consider the stakes.
changes in oil prices graph
U.S. domestic price level can not now be said to be reasonable, but still suitable for the entire economy and good for the auto industry, also moderate, not high not low, such a good environment have to destroy it, it is reform package, fearing what had cheaper for consumers like. not what the standard should be to the house and see? < br> The author's point of view, or to stabilize the overall situation and not to hear the wind is the rain, do not think that frequent changes in oil prices is a good thing, we will be able to reflect the progress of the oil price mechanism, and said plainly, is to go with the flow of domestic oil prices do not ? You can suffocate not a hold? now natural gas prices, the two oil giants Sinopec's oil business is booming at home and abroad, it is now important for competition in international voice of oil, have the ability to make others money, not thinking about one of their own wallet. I think that when the international oil prices relatively stable, at about $ 82 a barrel, about the time, is to consider adjusting the price, now is not wise to rush to adjust, whether it be the end of March early April What kind of situation, at least consider the uniqueness of the Chinese say.
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